Caruso & Co. Automotive M&A Report | 2025 Edition | Oil Change Vertical

Market Overview

The U.S. automotive retail and services sector represents an approximately $2T market, with an estimated $500–600B attributable to traditional service categories including quick lube, tire, collision repair, parts, accessories, and related services. These segments continue to attract institutional capital due to their essential nature, recurring demand characteristics, and fragmented ownership structures.

Following an extended period of elevated valuations and abundant capital, the current M&A environment has shifted toward greater selectivity and discipline. Platform formation activity has moderated, add-on acquisitions have become more targeted, and acquirers are increasingly focused on density, unit-level economics, and operational execution. Despite these changes, long-term consolidation themes remain intact across automotive service verticals.

Key Areas of Analysis

• Industry Structure & Macro Dynamics: Assessment of the macroeconomic and structural factors shaping automotive M&A, including interest rate conditions, tariff considerations, supply chain volatility, EV adoption trends, and increasing portfolio overlap among private equity sponsors.
• M&A Activity by Vertical: Transaction volume and deal composition trends across major subsectors, with particular focus on the shift from new platform investments toward larger, more strategic add-on acquisitions.
• Valuation Environment: Normalized EV/EBITDA valuation ranges across automotive services categories, highlighting the widening dispersion between scaled, high-performing assets and underperforming operators. Includes historical multiple analysis from 2019 through projected 2026 levels.
• Sponsor & Strategic Buyer Landscape: An overview of the active private equity and strategic buyer universe, detailing cross-vertical participation, competitive dynamics, and patterns of sponsor overlap.
• Select Transactions & Implications: Analysis of notable 2025 transactions and their implications for consolidation maturity, capital allocation discipline, and competitive positioning within respective subsectors.

2026 Outlook

Access the 2025 Automotive M&A Outlook for a comprehensive view of market trends, valuation benchmarks, and investment activity.

Access the Report

The report provides an objective perspective on the direction of automotive M&A activity entering 2026, with insights relevant to owners, management teams, and capital providers evaluating strategic alternatives in an evolving market environment.